The AUC statistic (technically, the “area under the receiver operating characteristic curve”) is designed to show, in this case ... predicting the starts of the most recent recessions in the G7 ...

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter point, the second reduction this year. A combination of strong data and ...

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), which officially tracks recessions ... The economy seems to be showing the classic signs of overheating (e.g., high inflation and unemployment ...

The Polymarket chart shows a clear downward trend in ... aware that historical patterns sometimes show recessions following ...

Here is a table showing the yields' highs and lows and the FFR since 2007. The next chart is an overlay of ... period and then out of the red prior to recessions, and is thus considered a reliable ...

Double-dip recessions are especially painful for both ... in reference to its shape on an economic cycle chart. These charts usually depict a center horizontal line at zero that represents average ...